The Zuma Elite is alive, kicking and seemingly have played with an open hand.

Source: EWN

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

My thoughts on the Opinion piece by Mark Swilling, The Zuma Elite is alive, kicking and preparing to replace Ramaphosa, as published on the Daily Maverick Website.

Firstly, I comprehensively agree with Mr Swilling on these points,

1.     . Retaining Zuma’s “Man of the people” image;
2.       Consolidate his power base in KZN;
3.       Rounding up the various PEC executives in Zuma’s favour; 
4.       Weakening the voter turnout against the ANC and;
5.       Nullifying the State Capture Commission

However, his opinion on the Russians/Embassy-cum-military bases/global expansion may be far-fetched for an Academic of Mr Swilling’s stature.  The problem with these statements, firstly, is that Nuclear Energy build for peaceful Civilian purposes is conducted under supervision and inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure the Nuclear Build processes are not manipulated for military purposes. Therefore the possibility that the Russians are using Civil Nuclear Power plants as a cover for an Embassy/Military base, could only occur if they (Russians) were not a signatory of the NPT, and were therefore under no obligation to allow IAEA inspection of their nuclear plants. Notwithstanding the fact that Mr Swilling neglects to provide some clear examples of said Embassies-cum-military bases.

Secondly, the point of the Russians using their Civil Nuclear Sector to expand their global ambitions does not mean that the Russian Federation has plans to control global nuclear energy proliferation as Mr Swilling is clearly implying, because they ALREADY control approximately sixty percent of nuclear energy trade globally, see here. 

Mr Swilling then suggests that South Africa would have become “….another Russian-controlled failed state held together with violence and fear”. I’m rather sceptical of the suggestion, because I’ve never heard of a Russian-controlled failed state, and am extremely disappointed Mr Swilling failed to provide an example of it.   Coupled with this he suggests, and again without providing the evidence, that “There is now more than enough evidence to suggest that the Russians want Ramaphosa out….” Mr Putin has suggested many a time that he is prepared, willing and able to work with any State leader under mutually beneficial terms, but will not allow terms to be dictated to the Russian State.

This Analysis and this Opinion piece, provides a comprehensive definition of how the Russian Federation and its leaders conduct their affairs of State. Suffice it to say, there remains the scepticism in the West that the Russian Federation is the USSR of old, because they believe that nothing has changed since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the subsequent collapse of the USSR. Nothing could be further from the truth, based on the articles mentioned above.

Coming back to the game being played by Zuma and his cohorts, I agree that there definitely is a huge fightback from the Zuma cartel. I also agree that there is some serious transformation needed in the ANC as the ruling political party. There definitely need to be some “Big Hitters” taken down and imprisoned for these changes to be effective.

However, while the Zuma cartel is busy showing their hand and being as predictable as anyone would be, in their situation (i.e. facing long term prison time), who is to say that Mr Ramaphosa is just sitting back and watching all of this unfold without having a Strategic plan of his own? In the lead up to the Elections in May, I think it would be expected from Mr Ramaphosa not to make any significant changes that may give the Zuma cartel a hint of his (Mr Ramaphosa’s) plan.  Therefore, appointing various Commissions of Enquiry was expected, a new NDPP was almost overdue, firing one or two Ministers was necessary. These were the basic non-negotiables Mr Ramaphosa needed to enforce in the period from being sworn in until the elections. We have to bear in mind that Mr Ramaphosa’s victory at Nasrec was too close for him to make sweeping changes across his Administration, which may have shortened his tenure as ANC leader.

For all intents and purposes, Mr Ramaphosa is in the most advantageous position given that he can predict what the Cartel has next on their agenda. Conversely, the Cartel could not know what Mr Ramaphosa’s response may be because he’s not showing his hand. There are various reasons why Mr Ramaphosa should be playing the long game. The most crucial of them is that the ANC needs votes come election time, and a premature counter attack from Mr Ramaphosa now, may have a worse impact on the ANC election result than what is currently expected.

Global stakeholders are watching and waiting to assess post-election Economic and Foreign policy, the resulting manoeuvres from State Capture and other Enquiries, and the fight against corruption from the Ruling Party, for their own interests.

The electorate can only hope and pray that Mr Ramaphosa IS playing the long game and have his game plan ready for some post-election surprises. Failing which, we all may have to pack our bags and head for the exit in an Exodus-like stampede.