What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, referred to as
4IR?
The Four Revolutions
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| Source:.www.salesforce.com |
As the history books would
suggest, the First Industrial revolution was the advent of the steam engine in
the 18th Century, ushering in the Age of Mechanical Production. Steam
was the primary source of power for everything from agriculture to
manufacturing. The world became dependent on steam power and machine tools when
steamships and steam engines (railroad) were the revolutionary way of long
distance transportation. Through steam power, the agrarian life steadily gave
way to urbanization, with the founding of the factory being the centre of
community life.
With the factory being the
driving force behind economic and social growth, Industrialization gave rise to
a middle class of skilled workers. Cities, Industries and economies grew
phenomenally with this new Age of Industrialization, as populations in US
cities, for example, grew from only 6% in the 1700s to around 40% in the 1800s.
The invention of the petrol
engine, telephone, and electricity in the 20th Century transformed
the way people lived, as these new inventions expanded the labour workforce in
cities. Production lines in factories began taking shape as the Ford motor
company was the first to introduce the concept of the assembly line in
factories. The explosion of scientific and Industrial inventions in the 19th
and 20th Centuries ushered in what would become the Modern World of
today. The Age of Science and Mass Production thus became the Foundation for
the exploration and expansion of Science and Technology in Industry.
The age of the Digital Revolution
in the late 20th Century saw the invention of the semi-conductor;
transistor and microprocessor introduce Digital computerisation in mainframes
and Personal Computers. Devices like TVs, wireless, telephones and other
analogue appliances were replaced with digital electronic technology.
Industries mostly impacted were Information Technology, Telecommunications and
Energy, as antiquated analogue Infrastructure mutated into high-speed digital
telecommunications, and advancements in the Energy Industry saw the development
of Nuclear energy as a (cleaner) source of energy over traditional coal powered
(dirty) energy production. Another Industry highly impacted was the Media,
where the Internet (Network) gradually became a primary source of information
as Media houses converted their products into electronic formats, and used the
Internet as a more efficient channel of delivery. The Digital revolution
transformed most Industries worldwide and changed the way people would live,
work and communicate.
Today we have the Fourth Industrial
Revolution, or simply 4IR, the name and definition as branded by Klaus Schwab,
Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. Technological developments
such as Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Cloud computing, Internet of Things
(IoT), and Virtualisation has set the tone for the age of Cyber-Physical
systems. Cyber-Physical systems are characterized by a fusion of technologies
that integrates the physical, digital and biological domains. Mechanical
automation through robotics in Industries like Construction, Manufacturing, and
the Service sector has become a sobering reality. Breakthroughs in
Biotechnology have enabled the possibility of genetic sequencing and editing in
the drive to cure diseases like cancer, leukaemia, Androgenetic Alopecia, etc.
Block-chain technology (an
Algorithmic Distributed Ledger), the platform from which Cryptocurrencies were
launched, are increasingly being used in supply chain and tracking Industries. Cryptocurrencies
were developed as an alternative to Fiat currencies, and has effectively made
trading between two entities more secure, with an explicit aim of removing the
middle man, i.e. Banks. Exchange trading markets for Cryptocurrencies, have already been established in parallel with the
traditional stock and derivative markets.
As more and more electronic
devices are Internet enabled, the demand for cyber information space has
skyrocketed. By 2018, a total of 23
Billion devices were connected to the Internet, with this number increasing
daily. IoT devices range from a light bulb that can be switched on through a
smartphone app, to smart cities with public enabled sensors that collect
valuable data in an effort to improve communities and to better understand and
control the environment. Other ground breaking technologies like Artificial
Intelligence and 5G has already been inducted into Asian and European Societies
as the benchmark for the future.
There is absolutely no doubt that
the amalgamation of 4IR into Societies and economies have untold benefits and endless
possibilities. It can raise salary bands, improve the quality of life and
decrease the cost of trade. Through Automation, production processes and
product delivery in manufacturing can be streamlined with a higher level of
accuracy, quality and efficiency. 3D printing can potentially increase
productivity and market growth by approximately 40%, as advanced robots can
program multiple product designs, speedily manufactured by efficient 3D
printers.
The development of a number of
Smart Cities in the Far East has already embedded the Fourth Industrial
Revolution into mainstream society across South East Asia. In the United
States, this trend is spread through various states, like Colorado,
Pennsylvania, California, Kentucky, etc.
What sets these advanced cities apart from the rest of the world? They
all have stable and fast growing economies, a robust world class
infrastructure, and a highly skilled workforce. Therefore, the Fourth
Industrial Revolution as an enabler of smart cities was a natural progression.
Sadly, not in South Africa. So let’s get back to reality!
4IR in the South African Context
The huge challenges we face in
the Social and economic spheres alone, is enough for the majority in this
country to forget about the dream of living in a 4IR world. The economy has
contracted by 3,2% in the first quarter of 2019, with a very low outlook for
the second quarter. The unemployment rate has been steadily increasing over the
last 5 years from 25.5% in 2014 to 27,6% in the first quarter of this year
(2019), as more companies downsize their workforce to cut costs. Youth
unemployment (25 to 34 years old) is at 34% and a staggering 55,5% for 16 to 24
year olds. These age categories are where the skills for 4IR should be exploited
and developed, yet the economy is not strong or stable enough to absorb them.
South Africa is well known for
being the most unequal society in the world, where 10% of the population earns
more than 50% of total household income in the country. The poorest 40% earns
less than 7% of household income. The
significance of this indicator is the reflection of how many unskilled and
semi-skilled people there are in the mainstream economy earning minimum wages.
With the development of Automation in 4IR, these are the very people whose jobs
are targeted. The Industries already impacted, as mentioned, are Agriculture,Manufacturing, Construction and the Service Sector, where most unskilled and
semi-skilled individuals ply their trade. The effect this could have on the
current Inequality gap would border on criminality. The already marginalized, would not only be excluded from access to the benefits of 4IR,
but would also be removed from the labour force driving it!
Blight on Education and
Infrastructure
A low Matriculant pass rate (compared
to the number of grade 1 students through twelve years of primary and Secondary
Education), followed by an even lower (entrance) submissions to an institution
of higher learning poses interesting challenges to the skills development required for the Science and Information and Technology Fields. Currently there
is a drain of scarce skills required in the Coding and App Development
disciplines of Information Technology. This is directly attributed to the low
numbers of Students registering for Study in the field of Science and
Technology, which is a result of the low numbers matriculating with the
required exemption in the Mathematics and Science category of subjects. We find
a similar trend of scarce skills in the fields of Mechanical, electrical and Civil engineering, where these make a significant contribution to the infrastructural
fields of 4IR.
As Industry evolves, a disruption
in labour trends is inevitable. The last three revolutions have proven that various
job skills were phased out with new professions replacing them. The downside of
this transition is that the number of job losses through automation and other
disruptions, is not proportional to the number of new jobs and professions
created. The trend of new job creation through Industry disruptions has been
significantly downward. Currently, only 0,5% of the US workforce is employed in
Industries that did not exist before the 21st Century, compared to
8,2% of the workforce in new Industries in the 1980s and 4,4% in the 1990s. In
addition, the type of jobs created required a higher level of education and
skill, compared to the skill levels required for the jobs that were lost. In
other words, most Blue-collar jobs are affected.
In South Africa, currently only
15% of the population has access to or can afford Broadband Internet
technology. Yet, 50% of the population are connected by smart phones through
mobile data access, which have become a daily necessity. It’s anticipated that
advanced IoT applications are being developed for the 5G Telecommunications
Infrastructure. Our Broadcasting Infrastructure has not yet been
migrated from analogue to digital broadcasting, which is required to free up frequency spectrum for mobile data
connectivity and to expand the access to broadband Internet for the rural
market of smartphone users.
Notwithstanding all the
challenges mentioned above which are crucial to the successful rollout of a 4IR
South Africa, the most fundamental challenge we face is the problem of keeping
the lights on. Our energy supply from Eskom is stuck in the second and third
revolutions. Ageing and outdated coal powered plants, have proven to be an
Achilles heel for the survival of the South African economy. More than 90% of
our energy generation is supplied by failing power plants, which have reached
its expiry date years ago. If that is not enough, the Power Utility has all but
gone bankrupt with Treasury continuously bailing it out with loans which it may
not be able to repay. The successful funding and rollout of IPPs around South
Africa has made very little difference in the constraints of energy supply. Unless
the energy sector is radically transformed and regulated to meet the current
requirements of our economy, 4IR for the majority of South Africa will be
nothing but a pipe dream.
Conclusion
In the last fifty to seventy
years, the pace of change in Industry and thus Society has quadrupled compared
to the pace of change of the first two revolutions. The number of inventions
and discoveries in Science and Technology more than doubled in the space of a
few decades compared to the period (approximately two Centuries) between the
first and second Industrial Revolutions. The next revolution may only be a few
years away as Millennial innovation radically change the Social and Economic
landscape. Through the process there will be winners and losers, though historically,
the most vulnerable of Society become the losers. In a race to patent, market
and sell a new invention, businesses tend to forget or conveniently forget the
implications and repercussions a new invention may have on Society, focusing
mainly on the advantages it will have to the few who may be fortunate enough to
gain access to it.
In Africa and specifically South Africa, whose economy is still
an “emerging” one, would the 4IR be a justified necessity, where only a handful
of the population would benefit from it?
